Evans School Policy Analysis & Research Group (EPAR)

Knowledge Gaps in Decision-making, Institutions & Heterogeneity

CRIFS research will better assimilate last-mile demand into adaptation work.

Institutions - To what extent do local norms and national policies affect household adaptation decisions, and at what level are solutions most efficient given the nature of the risk?

Heterogeneity - To what extent has the desire for scalable solutions compromised local demand and traction?

SSP Decision-making - To what extent does a narrow conception of consumer choice by researchers lead to incorrect projections of a risk-adjusted benefit calculus for adaptation decisions? For example, are we:

• Equating the measured risk of an event with the perceived risk, which is influenced by both statistical and qualitative characteristics of risks (control over, experience with, and the dread and reversibility of an event), by individual risk and future orientation, and by demographics and other factors?
• Missing salient non-financial costs and benefits of the innovation, such as time or social costs?
• Forgetting that decision-making itself is cognitively costly and can lead to simple decision heuristics?
• Only considering the risk of the status quo and not the risk of adoption?
• Ignoring decision biases that arise with uncertainty, such as anchoring, loss, and ambiguity aversion?
• Assuming that all risk communication is equally salient information?
• Offering rather than eliciting "choice sets" (and ignoring the associated empowerment)?

Ways to Engage for Students

Interested UW students are encouraged to explore the following educational and mentorship opportunity to get involved:

 

The Capstone Project at the Program on Climate Change (PCC) gives students the chance to work on impactful projects to communicate climate science information to policymakers and communities vulnerable to climate risks.

 

Contact: Mariam Bertram Email: uwpcc@uw.edu

 

We acknowledge important challenges specific to this work: data from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is scarce; counterfactuals are seldom available; attitudes, heuristics, risk perceptions, and biases are difficult to measure; strategies that reduce risk are difficult to value; agroecological and institutional heterogeneity do not always align; methods and evidence fall between traditional disciplinary boundaries; and research can be slow relative to the pace of the threats.

To best address these challenges, we intend to increase the utility and accessibility of the available data; make all our work public and open source to encourage broader research and translation; create cross-disciplinary teams within and across the physical and social sciences; blend expertise from different geographies and risk domains with expertise in sub-Saharan African agriculture, and partner with African researchers in both the cross-disciplinary and cross-context cases. In addition to pursuing the foundational research questions, we are maintaining room for demand-driven research - questions that emerge from practitioners and decision-makers in the field.