Evans School Policy Analysis & Research Group (EPAR)

This report provides a general overview of the wheat market in Ethiopia. The first section describes trends in wheat production and consumption over the past twenty years and summarizes recent trade policy related to wheat. The second section presents the findings of a literature review of the wheat value chain in Ethiopia, beginning with seed research and ending with sales. The third section outlines the nutritional content of wheat as well as potential substitutes. Finally, wheat consumption in Ethiopia is discussed in more depth, including the role of wheat in Ethiopian diets, substitute grain markets, and projected consumption in 2030. We find that over the past twenty years, wheat production and consumption have both increased in Ethiopia despite the existence of strong markets for potential substitute grains. The Ethiopian government has played an active role in wheat markets, such as making large investments in extension programs and adopting protectionist policies to ensure government control of all commercial grain imports. Despite these efforts, Ethiopia is expected to face a growing supply deficit in the absence of increased domestic productivity and/or changes to government policy. 

This report presents data on selected agricultural commodities for the fourth quarter of 2011 (October through December). It provides a summary of recent changes and price trends, demand, supply, and market conditions for key agricultural commodities. Falling prices characterized the majority of commodities covered in this report. Major cereals and cocoa experienced significant bumper crops, increasing supply while simultaneously weakening demand. Fertilizers followed these trends as farmers waited to see how the markets changed in 2012. Livestock price trends were mixed, with chicken and goat prices increasing, while cattle and dairy prices fell. Tuber prices gained for some portion of the quarter before falling over the last part, with the exception of yams which gained throughout. 

As our understanding of the impacts of hidden hunger on human nutrition grows, understanding the link between fertilizer use and human nutrition becomes increasingly important. This report presents an analysis of both grey and peer-reviewed literature on the effects of fertilizer use on nutritional quality of food, particularly the staples of maize, rice, wheat, cassava and legumes. We find that some nutrient deficiencies, such as zinc, can be effectively addressed through fertilizer use while others, such as iron deficiency, are more difficult to address.  Promising breakthroughs with fortified and complete fertilizers present the opportunity to correct multiple deficiencies. Current fertilizer products exist that, when applied with the proper agronomic methods, can have a significant effect on nutrition in the developing world.  However, it is important to recognize that there are many factors in the developing world that have the potential to inhibit the benefits of fertilizer for human nutrition.  Two significant factors are poor farmers’ difficulty in procuring the correct product and the relative sophistication required to apply fertilizers at the correct amounts and time to achieve desired results.  In addition, researchers have not focused on fertilizer and nutrition studies until recently, particularly micronutrient fertilizer studies, and few studies specifically study the impacts of fertilizer on human nutrition.  More research needs to be done to understand the most effective combinations and techniques, and to understand whether these methods truly increase the amount of nutrients bioavailable to humans.