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Agricultural Productivity Growth Rates: Historical Trends and Future Projections

EPAR TECHNICAL REPORT #136

Fri, 03/11/2011

AUTHORS: Kate Schneider, Travis Reynolds, C. Leigh Anderson

ABSTRACT: 

This report provides an overview of past, current, and projected future trends in agricultural productivity growth. It is difficult to measure productivity and while there are many robust empirical studies contributing to the productivity literature, there is no methodological consensus and each methodology used carries its own set of biases. This review looks at recent assessments of total factor productivity (TFP) and partial factor productivity (PFP) growth measures of land and labor productivity and crop and livestock yields, which offer multiple indicators with mixed evidence for global trends in agricultural productivity growth.  We find that TFP and PFP measures of agricultural productivity lend different strengths to an analysis of trends over time. While TFP is theoretically a better measure of an economy’s overall efficiency, methodological debates yield a wide range of estimates. PFP measures are simpler to estimate, however since they fail to account for all inputs, partial measures are more limited in their ability to explain productivity changes over time.  

TYPE OF RESEARCH: Literature Review

RESEARCH TOPIC CATEGORY: Sustainable Agriculture & Rural Livelihoods; Agricultural Productivity, Yield, & Constraints

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Literature Review