Types of Research
This brief explores how two datasets – The Tanzania National Panel Survey (TZNPS) and the TNS-Research International Farmer Focus (FF) – predict the determinants of inorganic fertilizer use among smallholder farmers in Tanzania by using regression analysis. The (TZNPS) was implemented by the Tanzania National Bureau of Statistics, with support from the World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study – Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) team and includes extensive information on crop productivity and input use. The FF survey was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and implemented by TNS Research International and focuses on the on the behaviors and attitudes of smallholder farmers in Tanzania. The two datasets produce relatively comparable results for the primary predictors of inorganic fertilizer use: agricultural extension and whether or not a household grows cash crops. However, other factors influencing input use produce results that vary in magnitude and direction of the effect across the two datasets. Distinct survey instrument designs make it difficult to test the robustness of the models on input use other than inorganic fertilizer. This brief uses data inorganic fertilizer use, rather than adoption per se. The TZNPS did not ask households how recently they began using a certain product and although the FF survey asked respondents how many new inputs were tried in the past four planting seasons, they did not ask specifically about inorganic fertilizer.
This report provides a general overview of the wheat market in Bangladesh. The first section describes trends in wheat production and consumption over the past twenty years and summarizes recent trade policy related to wheat. The second section presents the findings of a literature review of the wheat value chain in Bangladesh, beginning with seed selection and ending with sales. Finally, wheat consumption in Bangladesh is discussed in more depth, including nutritional information about wheat, substitute grain markets, and projected consumption in 2030. We find that wheat production in Bangladesh has been volatile and continues to reflect significant yield gaps. While wheat consumption has increased, rice is the most important crop and food grain. Increased demand by private traders for higher quality wheat for processing has fueled rising import levels, and the the gap between domestic supply and demand is projected to grow to over 4 million tons by 2030.
Over the past 20 years, global wheat production and consumption have increased significantly. Production has increased 28%, or about 1.3% annually, and consumption has increased about 24%, or 1.1% annually. A small number of countries consistently account for over 90% of the export market, but the import market is more diversified and involves many more countries. Wheat is primarily used for food, seed, and industry; only 20% of wheat production is used for animal feed. This brief provides a global overview of the wheat value chain, but with specific attention to three focus countries: Ethiopia, India (specifically the Bihar region), and Bangladesh. While these three countries currently have a limited impact in the global wheat market, projections of wheat production and demand suggest that over the next 20 years demand in Bangladesh and Ethiopia will increasingly exceed supply, while India will become a net importer by 2030.
This report provides a general overview of the wheat market in Ethiopia. The first section describes trends in wheat production and consumption over the past twenty years and summarizes recent trade policy related to wheat. The second section presents the findings of a literature review of the wheat value chain in Ethiopia, beginning with seed research and ending with sales. The third section outlines the nutritional content of wheat as well as potential substitutes. Finally, wheat consumption in Ethiopia is discussed in more depth, including the role of wheat in Ethiopian diets, substitute grain markets, and projected consumption in 2030. We find that over the past twenty years, wheat production and consumption have both increased in Ethiopia despite the existence of strong markets for potential substitute grains. The Ethiopian government has played an active role in wheat markets, such as making large investments in extension programs and adopting protectionist policies to ensure government control of all commercial grain imports. Despite these efforts, Ethiopia is expected to face a growing supply deficit in the absence of increased domestic productivity and/or changes to government policy.
In Tanzania, agriculture represents approximately 50 percent of GDP, 80 percent of rural employment, and over 50 percent of the foreign exchange earnings. Yet poor soil fertility and resulting low productivity contribute to low economic growth and widespread poverty. Chemical fertilizer has the potential to contribute to crop yield increases. Yet high prices and weaknesses in the fertilizer market keep fertilizer use low. This literature review examines the history of government interventions that have intended to increase access to fertilizers, and reviews current policies, market structure, and challenges that contribute to the present conditions. We find that despite numerous strategies over the last fifty years, from heavy government involvement to liberalization, major weaknesses in Tanzania’s fertilizer market prevent efficient use of fertilizer. High transportation costs, low knowledge level of farmers and agrodealers, unavailability of improved seed, and limited access to credit all contribute to the market’s problems. The government’s current framework, the Tanzania Agriculture Input Partnership (TAIP), acknowledges this interconnectedness by targeting multiple components of the market. This model could help Tanzania tailor solutions relevant to specific road, soil, and market conditions of different areas of the country, contributing to enhanced food security and economic growth.